The Indian elections have ended, and Narendra Modi has been sworn in for a 3rd time period. Nevertheless, the opposition alliance (‘INDIA’) proclaimed the ‘ethical and political defeat’ of Modi in these elections. Why?
Throughout the election marketing campaign, Modi’s occasion, the BJP, and his ruling coalition, the Nationwide Democratic Alliance (NDA), boastfully campaigned that this time they might win greater than 400 seats — Ab Ki Baar 400 paar. The professional-Modi media went right into a frenzy for the slogan and instantly began projecting ‘400 seats’.
The favored discourse obsessively revolved round exactly this query: Will the NDA win 400 seats? Everybody appeared to disregard the fundamental proven fact that solely 270 seats are wanted to kind the federal government.
So when the BJP received 240 seats, and the NDA 293 seats, it got here as a shock. And it’s true: for the primary time in ten years, Modi must govern not with an absolute majority however with a coalition.
But if one reads solely the liberal media protection of those outcomes, it generally appeared just like the opposition, not Modi, had received.
Finger marked with indelible ink, parliamentary elections in India. Picture by Merely CVR by way of Flickr
Many pundits heralded the triumph of democracy, and the defeat of Modi’s authoritarianism. Pratap Bhanu Mehta, an influential liberal commentator, argued that ‘the air of despondency, the suffocating shadow of authoritarianism, and the nauseous winds of communalism have, no less than for the second, lifted.’
However listed below are the easy details of the election: BJP received 240 seats and the oppositional alliance 232 seats. BJP basically retained 36 per cent of the entire electoral vote share from the 2019 election, whereas the opposition alliance obtained 21.19 per cent.
This result’s actually a setback for Modi, the BJP, and the Hindu nationalist Proper extra broadly; it’s actually a respite for opposition forces. However it will be foolhardy to have a good time this second as a victory.
Sober evaluation of the Left
At this second, I provide three observations concerning the tough path ahead for Indian democracy.
First, some excellent news: the poor, the Muslims, the Dalits, and the ‘Different Backward Lessons’ – the socially marginalized and oppressed sections of India’s inhabitants – voted towards the Modi regime. The oppositional alliance, campaigning on problems with welfare, jobs and constitutionalism, was successfully in a position to mobilize these sections towards Modi’s authoritarianism. This was a much-needed course correction for the liberal Left: a renewal of a social-democratic political discourse.
Second, a extra sobering truth: the share share of the pro-Modi vote didn’t drop. There are two inferences to attract from this, one optimistic, one pessimistic. The optimistic inference is that the oppositional alliance developed a remarkably efficient seat-sharing pact among the many member events to transform vote share into seat wins. That is no imply feat, given the alliance is ideologically numerous and stuffed with outstanding political personalities, with accompanying cliques and cults.
The pessimistic inference is what I had argued earlier than the election: Hindu nationalism has achieved hegemony. There’s a consolidated Hindu voting bloc on which the Hindu nationalist forces can rely for electoral victories regardless of alienating huge sections of India’s poor and marginalized. It implies that electoral competitors in India now happens substantively over solely 65 per cent of the voters, outdoors the Hindu voting bloc – largely the poor and voters in these peripheral states the place subnational and regional identities dominate. The problem for the opposition going ahead will likely be to play a defensive battle to maintain BJP restricted to their 35 per cent vote share and beneath absolutely the majority by way of seats.
My third statement is that there are rising fractures contained in the ruling dispensation. There are two points to this. Firstly, the extreme occasion centralization beneath Modi is creating fissures contained in the occasion by alienating each occasion cadres and the Hindu nationalist volunteer organizations that sometimes present mobilization assist to the BJP. Secondly, the BJP’s coalition companions, the Telugu Desam Occasion (TDP), from the state of Andhra Pradesh, and the Janta Dal-United (JDU), from the state of Bihar, will definitely restrict the room for Modi to manoeuver. This can generate a basic dilemma for the BJP — does it advance strongly Hindu nationalist politics or make compromises with companions who’ve totally different regional pursuits? The previous will jeopardize Modi’s coalition, the latter will dissatisfy his Hindu base. This coalitional constraint on Modi will likely be his largest problem within the third time period.
The subsequent steps for India’s left/liberal opposition won’t be easy. The primary, minimal requirement will likely be for the INDIA alliance to stay unified, fairly than disintegrating petty disagreements.
The subsequent process will likely be to use relentless strain on all authoritarian practices and Hindu nationalist insurance policies of the federal government. This contains each supporting civil society protests towards the regime and always publicizing governmental failures. On the identical time, the opposition ought to proceed to mobilize the category and caste poor of India and to advocate for regional and subnational points and issues — that is the defensive battle for the 65 per cent of the voters. The purpose is to stop Hindu nationalists from drawing within the poor Hindu, Dalit, and OBC (‘different backward courses’) teams into the Hindu voting bloc organized towards Muslims. An encouraging demonstration by the opposition of the medium-term purpose was the excessive illustration of OBCs (particularly decrease OBC), Dalits, and Muslims on its record of election candidates; the BJP candidates have been largely upper-caste Hindus.
An extended-term process for the Indian opposition is to develop a extra substantial voting bloc round problems with inequality and constitutional freedoms. Politicization of caste, class, and regional/subnational inequalities are the important thing elements of the long-term process: it should entrench and deepen the social-democratic discourse it devised throughout the elections — and make worth commitments to equality and freedom seem to be widespread sense. Every time the opposition alliance kinds governments at state elections, they should marketing campaign after which govern in line with these ideas.
Within the summary, these objectives ought to be attainable. Sadly, the present opposition alliance is stuffed with opportunistic, shortsighted, and corrupt politicians. That the Indian Left has been so desperate to have a good time Modi’s setback as a big victory strikes me as an indication of weak spot. Actual progress will likely be sober evaluation, by extra farsighted leaders, of the challenges forward.
Till then, democracy in India will proceed to be on life-support.
This text was first printed by Public Seminar on 24 June 2024.
